The rate relief everyone's been waiting for? It's arrived. Thirty-year mortgages dropped to 5.98% — down 87 basis points from a year ago — and Miami's luxury market is responding. Properties above $1 million posted +21% growth year-over-year, the strongest tier by a wide margin.

Q1 2026 Snapshot

Single-family median: $685,000 (+4.6% YoY). Miami Beach median: $750,000 (+1.47% from Q4). $1M+ segment: +21% YoY. Cash buyers: 42.8% of all closings. 30-year rate: 5.98% (was 6.85% a year ago).

What Rate Relief Actually Means

That 87-basis-point decline saves roughly $230/month on a $750K loan. Multiply that across the buyer pool and you get real demand unlocking — particularly in the $750K–$2M range where rate sensitivity is highest. Consensus points to mid-5% by mid-2026.

The Ultra-Luxury Surge Continues

Properties above $1M grew 21% YoY while the broader market inched up 1.2%. Serious capital — international and domestic — is aggressively targeting Miami's top-tier inventory. The 10,591 million-dollar listings (still more than NYC) offer selection that didn't exist five years ago.

International Tailwinds

A weaker US dollar makes Miami more accessible to Canadian, Latin American, and European buyers. Add the World Cup bringing global visibility and infrastructure investment, and the international buyer pipeline looks robust through year-end.

Inventory Is Tightening

Absorption improved to 17 months from 20 — still technically a buyer's market, but trending toward balance. New deliveries like Cipriani add quality supply while narrowing sellers' historical advantage.

The bottom line: If you've been on the sidelines, the thesis is strengthening. Rates are moving your way. Inventory is expanding. But prices are holding firm and appreciation is intact. This is the window — not the waiting room.

Data: MLS, Freddie Mac, Compass research. Miami-Dade County, Q1 2026.